After months of half truths, hollow promises, claims of greatness, veiled threats and televised showdowns, it’s finally over. No, I’m not referring to the overhyped but ultimately disappointing Mayweather vs Pacquaio “fight-of-the-decade”, but the far more unexpected outcome of the UK general election. The ruling Conservative Party has comprehensively won the battle and war for the hearts – or at least the minds – of UK voters.
The political landscape has not changed much since campaigning for the 7th May UK General elections started nearly a month ago. One-on-one interviews of Prime Minister David Cameron and opposition leader Ed Miliband, two televised debates featuring the main party leaders and the launch of the party manifestos have yielded much noise but ultimately shed little light on how and by whom the country will be governed in the next five years (See Figure 2). Read more
Sir Winston Churchill in October 1939 famously compared forecasting Russia’s action to “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. He could easily have been describing Russia’s actions in the past 18 months or the challenge of forecasting who will be in government after the UK general elections on 7th May. The only certainty, even if eight weeks is a long time in politics, is that these parliamentary elections are likely to be the closest fought and hardest to predict in recent memory. Read more
The UK is today digesting the implications of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Autumn Statement. My over-riding impression is that the government’s new measures are aimed squarely at Labour’s more high-profile policies, with the ultimate goal of overtaking Labour in the polls ahead of the May elections (see Labour still ahead of Conservatives but UKIP is potential kingmaker). Read more
Prime Minister Cameron’s promise of a referendum on EU membership in 2017 served a potential dual purpose, in my view: to leverage concessions on the UK’s terms and conditions of EU membership, including immigration, and domestically to regain the initiative with the anti-EU lobby. Ultimately, the government failed to legislate (before the May elections) an in-out EU referendum, after a breakdown in negotiations with the Liberal Democrats. While the Conservatives could table a new bill to hold a referendum if they win the May elections, it is not obvious how much Cameron has achieved. Read more
Prime Minister Cameron and other party leaders are playing catch-up to the rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP). Cameron has been forced to play a bold hand: push for EU reform, including tighter immigration and benefits rules, cheaper UK membership and more generally less EU interference in the UK’s day-to-day running. Think of it as “EU-light” – all the benefits of full-fat EU membership without the downsides. Read more
The meteoric rise in support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) has, notably, taken place despite the UK economy outperforming many developed and most European economies (see Figure 1) and a number of events, including the royal wedding, Olympics and silver jubilee, putting the UK firmly on the map.
The nationalist UK Independence Party (UKIP) has been the biggest beneficiary of the loss support for the traditional three large parties – the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Support for UKIP has doubled in the past two years to around 15-17%, putting it in third place, comfortably ahead of the Liberal Democrats (see Figure 1). At the last elections UKIP was just another acronym vying for attention alongside the British National Party (BNP), Scottish National Party (SNP) and Greens. Today it has two MPs – a number that is likely to rise at the next elections. Read more
Labour still ahead of Conservatives but UKIP is potential kingmaker
UK elections are scheduled for 7 May 2015 (see Figure 1). On present form, the Conservatives don’t have the votes to form a new coalition government (assuming they can find a partner), let alone form a majority government. Analysts tentatively forecast that Labour will win slightly more seats than the Conservatives, with both parties falling short of a 326 parliamentary victory. This would give Labour first right to form a minority or coalition government. Read more
With UK elections in less than six months time, the ruling Conservatives are still trailing Labour in the polls, while UKIP continues to steal the limelight and populist platform. Worryingly for Prime Minister Cameron, the sharp fall in real wages alongside generous benefits, has overshadowed the UK’s relatively strong economic performance. Read more