Author Archives: Olivier Desbarres

When you’re behind, play a big hand: “EU-light”

Prime Minister Cameron and other party leaders are playing catch-up to the rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP). Cameron has been forced to play a bold hand: push for EU reform, including tighter immigration and benefits rules, cheaper UK membership and more generally less EU interference in the UK’s day-to-day running. Think of it as “EU-light” – all the benefits of full-fat EU membership without the downsides. Read more

UKIP has what every political party wants…Momentum

The nationalist UK Independence Party (UKIP) has been the biggest beneficiary of the loss support for the traditional three large parties – the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Support for UKIP has doubled in the past two years to around 15-17%, putting it in third place, comfortably ahead of the Liberal Democrats (see Figure 1). At the last elections UKIP was just another acronym vying for attention alongside the British National Party (BNP), Scottish National Party (SNP) and Greens. Today it has two MPs – a number that is likely to rise at the next elections. Read more

Labour still ahead of Conservatives but UKIP is potential kingmaker

Labour still ahead of Conservatives but UKIP is potential kingmaker

UK elections are scheduled for 7 May 2015 (see Figure 1). On present form, the Conservatives don’t have the votes to form a new coalition government (assuming they can find a partner), let alone form a majority government. Analysts tentatively forecast that Labour will win slightly more seats than the Conservatives, with both parties falling short of a 326 parliamentary victory. This would give Labour first right to form a minority or coalition government. Read more

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