The consensus amongst portfolio managers, analysts and finance specialists recently surveyed is that the US Federal Reserve will hike its policy rate target range 25bp to 25-50bp from 0-25bp at its meeting on 16th December. This is broadly in line with market pricing, although there’s a residual risk of the Fed delivering a de facto policy rate hike of 12.5bp or 37.5bp. Read more
The over-riding consensus amongst portfolio managers, analysts and finance specialists surveyed is that the US Federal Reserve will start hiking its policy rate before the Bank of England (BoE).
Respondents are less confident about the exact timing of the start of the Fed and in particular BoE hikes. The consensus forecast is for the Fed to pull the trigger in September but for the BoE to wait till Q1 2016. There is an overwhelming view that the rate hiking cycles will be slow and gradual, particularly in the UK, with the Fed and BoE expected to hike rates by only 96bps and 67bps, respectively, between now and end-2016. Read more